China’s population predicted to drop by 60% by century’s end

China’s population predicted to drop by 60% by century’s endChina’s population predicted to drop by 60% by century’s end
via zhang kaiyv on Unsplash
Michelle De Pacina
February 15, 2024
The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) has predicted China’s population will have dropped by 60% by the end of the century. 
Population drop: China, which currently holds the world’s second-largest population with over 1.4 billion people, may see that number shrink to 525 million by 2100. According to SASS, this updated forecast is 62 million fewer than the previous year’s projection. This report comes closely after data from the Chinese statistics bureau revealed that the number of deaths in China exceeded the number of births for the second consecutive year in 2023.
What does this mean for China?: The significant decline in population could impact the nation’s economy and, consequently, the global economy, according to analysts. Victoria University senior researcher Peng Xiujian predicts that the trend may reduce consumer spending in China while simultaneously increasing wages and government expenditure.
However, other analysts view the population decline as an opportunity to address environmental and resource challenges. The United Nations projects a global population of 8.9 to 12.4 billion by 2100 based on various trends.
Factors of the decline: The recent trend of more deaths than births in China contributes to the projection. Various factors, including the nation’s urbanization and previous one-child policy, have contributed to declining births for decades. But in recent years, demographic and economic challenges, such as an aging workforce, youth unemployment and a low fertility rate, are seen as the primary reasons for this decline. Despite government efforts to encourage larger families, changing preferences, economic factors and the high cost of living in urban areas have limited their impact. 
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