Derek Tran widens lead against Michelle Steel in razor-thin Orange County House race

Democratic challenger Derek Tran has expanded his lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by 480 votes in California’s closely contested 45th Congressional District, which spans parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.

By the numbers: As of Thursday, Tran led Steel by 156,576 votes to 156,096, a margin of 0.2 percentage points (50.1% to 49.9%), according to the California Secretary of State. Tran overtook Steel for the first time last Saturday, closing an Election Day gap of 11,363 votes and gradually extending his lead through late ballot counts. While Steel holds a slight edge in Orange County, Tran leads decisively in the Los Angeles County portion of the district, securing 56.2% of the vote there. In historically Republican cities like Garden Grove and Westminster, Steel’s margins have eroded compared to her 2022 re-election campaign. The exact number of remaining ballots is unclear, but election officials have until Dec. 6 to certify the results, after which a voluntary recount could occur.
Why the race is so close: California’s District 45 has emerged as one of the nation’s most competitive House seats due to its near-even partisan split and diverse majority-minority electorate, which includes significant Vietnamese and Latino populations. Designed during the 2020 redistricting to amplify Vietnamese American electoral power, the district marks the first general election appearance of a Vietnamese American — Tran — who has deep community ties and has countered Steel’s once-dominant presence in Little Saigon. Tran’s local trust helped him neutralize Steel’s repeated accusations of communist sympathies, a traditionally potent issue among older Vietnamese voters. The race, along with higher turnout in a presidential election year, highlights Southern California’s shifting political landscape, where independent redistricting and demographic changes are making once-safe Republican districts like 45 fiercely contested battlegrounds.

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