Japan sees largest population drop in history as births fall to record low

The world’s fourth-largest economy is facing its most severe demographic crisis yet. Japan’s population fell by more than 908,000 people in 2024, the largest annual decline since records began in 1968, bringing the total to about 120.65 million.

The country recorded just 686,061 births in 2024, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1899 and a 5.7% drop from the year before. The fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.15 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for population stability. Deaths reached approximately 1.605 million, outnumbering births by nearly 920,000.

In 2023, the population dropped by about 861,000 to 121.56 million. Births that year were 730,000, while foreign residents rose to a record 3.32 million, reflecting Japan’s growing reliance on immigration to counterbalance domestic losses.

Japan’s record-low fertility rate mirrors similar trends in South Korea, where the birth rate dropped last year to 0.68, and in China, which saw its population shrink for a second consecutive year in 2024. Demographers warn that these declines could reshape the region’s labor markets, economies and geopolitical influence in the coming decades.

More than one third of Japan’s population is now aged 65 or older, putting strain on pensions, healthcare and the shrinking pool of working-age citizens. Rural areas are being hollowed out, with nearly 4 million homes now abandoned as younger residents move to cities or delay marriage and children due to high costs, long work hours and limited job opportunities.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the trend a “silent emergency” and announced expanded child allowances, free high school education and full parental leave pay for couples who take leave at the same time.

The Garden City Nation Project began offering up to 1 million yen ($6,765) per child for families relocating from Greater Tokyo, plus subsidies for relocation or business startups in 2022. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike introduced a four-day workweek for municipal staff last year, saying it is essential to “ensure no careers are compromised due to childbearing or childcare.”

Despite these measures, critics argue they fall short of addressing structural issues such as gender inequality, insecure employment and the high cost of raising children. Government projections show Japan’s population of about 124 million is expected to fall to 87 million by 2070, with 40% of residents aged 65 or older.