US migration may go negative for the 1st time in over 60 years

Net migration to the United States may plunge to its lowest level in decades this year, according to a new report from D.C. think tanks American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Brookings Institution.

Researchers estimate that the nation could see anywhere from a net loss of 525,000 people to a modest net gain of 115,000 by the end of 2025. This sharp drop stands in contrast to 2024, when net migration was nearly 1.3 million, and to 2020, when pandemic-related travel restrictions pushed the figure down to 330,000.

AEI researchers cite “a dramatic decrease in inflows and somewhat higher outflows” as the main drivers behind the decline. The report points to stricter immigration enforcement, reduced visa issuances and a rise in deportations and voluntary departures as significant factors. It also highlights the continued impact of policies introduced under President Donald Trump.

Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at AEI and co-author of the study, said, “The range we have is about 600,000 people wide, but … the mid-point estimate is definitely negative,” noting this could be the first net outflow since before 1960.

The projected drop in migration is expected to reverberate through the U.S. labor market, with JPMorgan economists suggesting that approximately 150,000 fewer legal workers may enter the country each month by year-end. AEI and Brookings researchers estimate that the reduction in net migration could shave 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off GDP growth in 2025 while potentially pushing monthly job gains close to zero. While AEI experts note that migration figures could shift if policies change or global conditions improve, the current trajectory points to an unprecedented contraction in net migration.