How Trump’s immigration policies will hit Asian workers hardest

The Trump administration’s immigration policies will reduce the U.S. labor force by 15.7 million workers by 2035, including 4.7 million from legal immigration restrictions that disproportionately impact Asian professionals, who represent 85% of H-1B visa holders, according to a new economic analysis.

Key findings: The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) used Congressional Budget Office modeling tools to project economic consequences, comparing outcomes against CBO’s January 2025 baseline established before President Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions took effect. The analysis shows steep declines: annual GDP growth would drop from 1.8% to 1.3% between fiscal years 2025 and 2035, nearly a one-third reduction, while cumulative economic output would fall by $12.1 trillion, equivalent to $34,369 for every American. These losses would drive federal borrowing up by $1.74 trillion over the decade, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 118.5% to 129.2% by 2035.

Behind these fiscal projections lies a substantial labor force reduction. Legal immigration restrictions account for 2.8 million of the 6.8 million workers lost by 2028, with enforcement against undocumented immigrants responsible for the remaining four million. The administration’s previous report of removing or prompting self-deportation of 2 million people, combined with its 1-million-per-year deportation target, suggests the actual impact on the labor force could exceed these projections. Notably, these figures exclude potential productivity losses from restricting employer access to high-skilled foreign talent through regulatory changes.

What this means: For Asian immigrant families, the shift brings both immediate financial shocks and long-term uncertainty about their futures. Indian nationals accounted for 73% of approved H-1B petitions in fiscal 2023, while Chinese workers comprised another 12%. This is the same pipeline that produced today’s corporate leaders such as Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Alphabet’s Sundar Pichai and Adobe’s Shantanu Narayen. In a shocking development, Trump’s late-September directive, which applies only to new applications, raises the H-1B application fee from a $2,000-$5,000 range to $100,000 per petition.

Beyond corporate balance sheets, the human cost emerged immediately. A three-hour delay paralyzed an Emirates flight from San Francisco as panicked H-1B holders debated whether they could return home, while Google and Microsoft scrambled to urge their visa-dependent employees abroad to rush back to U.S. soil. For Asian families already navigating complex immigration pathways, the $100,000 barrier effectively ends H-1B access for all but elite corporations, severing the visa-to-green-card pathway that has anchored Asian American economic mobility for generations. Unsurprisingly, the policy is being challenged in court.

The big picture: The administration is pursuing restrictions across multiple immigration categories simultaneously. Plans to eliminate Optional Practical Training, which allows international students to work after graduation, would cut 250,000 workers annually, shutting down the education-to-employment pathway that sustains generational immigration patterns. The 2025 travel restrictions now block entry from up to 19 countries; refugee admissions face suspension except for White South Africans; and Temporary Protected Status terminations affect 1.2 million people, including Venezuelans and Haitians.

Economists dispute the rationale behind these measures. “It is wrong to assume that shrinking immigration helps U.S. workers when job growth slows,” labor economist Mark Regets said, noting that U.S. unemployment climbed from 4.3% to 4.6% between January and August 2025 even as the foreign-born labor force contracted.