Taiwan says full invasion by China would be very difficult

December 14, 2021

Mainland China will supposedly have a difficult time launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan over problems that mostly have to do with logistics, according to a new report by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.

Why it matters: The threat assessment was sent to legislators, according to Reuters. If correct, Taipei improves its odds of securing its sovereignty against China, whose warplanes have increasingly patrolled the Taiwan Strait in recent months.

According to the ministry, China’s transport capacity is currently restricted.
“However, the nation’s military strongly defends ports and airports, and they will not be easy to occupy in a short time. Landing operations will face extremely high risks,” the ministry wrote.
Those that manage to land would then need to be resupplied not only with weapons but also with food, medicine and other necessities. “The nation’s military has the advantage of the Taiwan Strait being a natural moat and can use joint intercept operations, cutting off the Communist military’s supplies, severely reducing the combat effectiveness and endurance of the landing forces,” the ministry declared.
The ministry also believes that China must keep some of its own forces close by to deal with foreign forces coming to Taiwan’s aid. Aside from U.S. and Japanese bases near the self-governed island, China should also pay attention to “fractious areas of China’s border,” including those with India and the South China Sea.

The big picture: In October, Taiwan said China would be capable of a full-scale invasion by 2025. It also said that it will not start a war but will defend itself “full on,” according to CNBC.

China has ramped up its presence in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in recent months. The increasing tension has led to speculations of an impending war described by one former Chinese diplomat as “Armageddon.”
The U.S. has affirmed its support for Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. Earlier this month, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner said there is an “urgent” need to bolster the island’s defenses, according to The Hill.
Still, experts believe China has other ways to overcome Taiwan. These include a blockade and targeted missile attacks, Reuters noted.

Featured Image via Taiwan Ministry of National Defense

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