Mamdani maintains lead in final polls

Despite narrowing margins in the final polls, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani retains his frontrunner position heading into tomorrow’s New York City mayoral election.

By the numbers: Recent polling until Oct. 30 consistently placed Mamdani ahead in the three-way contest, though his margin has shrunk in the closing days. Saturday’s AtlasIntel survey shows the tightest result yet, where he drew 40.6% support compared to Cuomo’s 34%, marking a 6.6-point spread that represents his slimmest advantage since July. Still, other polls conducted in late October painted a more comfortable picture. An Emerson College poll found a 25-point gap, while both surveys from Marist University and Fox-commissioned Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research recorded 16-point differences. The Real Clear Politics aggregated average reinforces Mamdani’s lead, placing him at 45% against Cuomo’s 31% and Sliwa’s 17%. Meanwhile, more than 735,000 New Yorkers have already voted early, substantially outpacing the city’s 2021 mayoral election at this point.

Latest developments: Mamdani spent yesterday, the campaign’s final Sunday, deploying 6,700 volunteers across the city in an effort to reach more than 200,000 doors, which would break the campaign’s single-day record. His schedule included remarks at First Corinthian Baptist Church in Harlem, watching the Buffalo Bills game with Gov. Kathy Hochul at an Astoria sports bar and catching the Knicks from the upper deck at Madison Square Garden. As he campaigned across the city, President Donald Trump appeared on CBS’ “60 Minutes” Sunday night to weigh in on the race, delivering a lukewarm nod toward Cuomo while labeling Mamdani as a “communist” once again. The closer margins represent a dramatic shift from the June Democratic primary, where Mamdani defied expectations by capturing over 56% following ranked-choice tabulation after trailing in most pre-election surveys.

What this means: A Mamdani victory tomorrow would represent a historic breakthrough as New York City would elect its first South Asian mayor and its first Muslim mayor, opening new ground for Asian American political leadership in the country’s largest metropolis. While his campaign has activated communities frequently marginalized in municipal politics, it has simultaneously drawn racist and Islamophobic attacks during the contest’s final stretch. At 34, the self-proclaimed democratic socialist from an immigrant family stands poised to lead a city traditionally governed by establishment insiders, signaling a potential generational realignment in power structure. For Asian American voters, the stakes transcend individual policies: the outcome will test whether diverse communities can claim the city’s most powerful office and determine its trajectory.

Polls open tomorrow from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. for Election Day.