Maduro arrest fuels Taiwan-focused debate across Chinese social media

The Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 triggered a surge of debate on Chinese social media, pushing related hashtags to the top of Weibo’s trending charts. While Beijing has framed the seizure as a sovereignty violation, online discussion in China has focused instead on whether the U.S. operation offers lessons for Taiwan, a comparison some users embraced and others rejected.

President Donald Trump’s proclamation that the U.S. would take control in Venezuela to “get the oil flowing” circulated widely in translated clips and screenshots. Search terms including “Trump,” “Venezuela,” “Maduro,” “military force” and “Greenland” dominated Weibo trending lists this week.

Nationalist-leaning commentary gained traction quickly as users drew direct comparisons between Venezuela and Taiwan. One widely shared Weibo post cited by Bloomberg stated, “I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future,” while another described the operation as a “perfect blueprint” for resolving the Taiwan issue through a rapid leadership capture. Both posts were shared thousands of times before facing moderation limits.

One user wrote that the U.S. “lightning raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro and his wife provides a perfect blueprint for our military to launch a surprise attack on Frog Island and seize Lai Ching-te,” referring to Taiwan’s president using a derogatory term. Screenshots of the post continued circulating after the original was taken down, extending its reach.

Zhihu author Feng Leng Mu Shi framed the arrest as evidence of a shifting global balance, writing in a viral post: “If the U.S. truly had the strength to crush everyone and dominate everything completely, it might still be able to control global affairs. But now, with the rise of China, countries bullied by the U.S. have new choices. If you were one of them, what would you choose? To cooperate with a bandit who might kill you with an axe at any moment? Or to cooperate with a reasonable businessman who follows the rules? I believe any rational person would make the obvious choice.”

Not all commentary on Chinese social media embraced comparisons between Venezuela and Taiwan. Some users rejected the analogy outright, arguing that U.S. actions abroad do not translate to China’s claims over Taiwan.

One popular nationalist government affairs commentator cited by The Guardian argued: “Stop linking the US actions in Venezuela to the Taiwan issue … Their actions constitute a grave violation of international law and an infringement on Venezuela’s sovereignty, whereas our situation is strictly an internal national affair. There is absolutely no ‘comparability’ in terms of nature, methods or objectives.”

Commentator Hu Xijin also questioned whether the U.S. operation strengthened deterrence around Taiwan, writing, “Americans might do well to ask the Taiwan authorities if the U.S. military action in China has made the Democratic Progressive Party authorities pushing Taiwan independence feel more secure, or more anxious?”