Harris and Trump locked in incredibly close race in swing states, latest polls show

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in an exceptionally tight race in battleground states, with recent polls showing no clear winner just a week before Election Day. The competition remains particularly fierce in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where each candidate clings to razor-thin leads or ties.

What we’re seeing: The latest polling data underscores a neck-and-neck national race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday has Harris at 44% and Trump at 43%, while Morning Consult’s weekly survey shows Harris up by three points, 50% to 47%. Other polls reveal similar fluctuations: an ABC/Ipsos poll on Sunday put Harris ahead by four points (51%-47%), while a CBS/YouGov poll showed a slimmer 50%-49% lead. Swing states reflect even tighter margins. In Wisconsin, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll out Monday shows Trump leading Harris 48%-47%, though the Democratic candidate has a notable edge at 50%-47% in Door County. In Arizona and Nevada, CNN/SSRS polls out Tuesday show Harris and Trump in a deadlock: Harris wins 48%-47% in Arizona, while Trump wins 48%-47% in Nevada. In Kansas, a Fort Hays State University poll shows that Trump’s lead over Harris narrowed to just five points (48.2%-43.3%) — a remarkable shift in a reliably Republican state.
Paths to victory: Each candidate’s path to victory hinges on narrow wins in key states. For Harris, securing Michigan and making gains in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may be crucial to offsetting Trump’s strength in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where he currently leads, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average. Women, Latino and younger voters are essential especially in Arizona, where Harris now holds a 16-point lead among women, as per CNN/SSRS. Additionally, Harris has positioned herself as a champion of reproductive rights, a focal issue among swing voters such as in Arizona and Nevada. For Trump, securing North Carolina and Pennsylvania is critical to rebuilding the coalition that led him to victory in 2016. His campaign is banking on strong support among men, where he holds an 18-point lead in Wisconsin. The CNN/SSRS polls show likely voters in Arizona and Nevada also trust Trump more on the economy, where he holds double-digit leads over Harris, as well as immigration and foreign policy.

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