Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in Iowa, leading 47% to 44% in a stunning reversal in the reliably Republican state, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. The New York Times/Siena College polls also reveal Harris advancing in key battlegrounds, including narrow leads in four out of seven states.

• Why Iowa matters: Harris leading Trump among likely Iowa voters marks a surprising shift from previous state polls, where Trump reportedly held leads of four points in September and a substantial 18 points in June over President Joe Biden. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” prominent pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register. The Iowa poll shows independent voters, particularly women, are a driving force behind Harris’ surge, now favoring her 46% to 39%, with independent women supporting her by a decisive 28-point margin. Senior voters also tilt in Harris’ favor, with a remarkable 63% of women aged 65 and older backing her. Despite Trump’s enduring support among evangelicals, rural voters and men, Harris’ appeal among older, more reliable voters could tip the scales. Trump’s advantage lies in enthusiasm, as 76% of his supporters are highly motivated compared to 71% for Harris.
• In swing states: Meanwhile, the race remains razor-thin across the seven battleground states. The New York Times/Siena College polls show Harris leading in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump holding Arizona, and both candidates deadlocked in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Among late-deciding voters, Harris wins 55% to Trump’s 44%, a critical development given that 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots. Voters citing the economy and immigration overwhelmingly favor Trump, whereas concerns about democracy and abortion rights strengthen Harris’ base. The data show a clear divide: Trump maintains his grip on non-college-educated white voters and younger men, while Harris has made gains among women and early voters. Harris, in particular, wins those who’ve already voted by eight points. The high-stakes contest highlights stark differences in voter priorities, with issues like abortion rising to prominence in pivotal regions.