Could GOP’s outreach efforts to Asian Americans help flip New Jersey governorship?

The battle for New Jersey’s governorship may hinge on Asian American voters, with Democratic officials acknowledging the party’s uphill climb to win back a demographic in which Republicans have made significant inroads.

Driving the news: The warning comes from Democratic National Committee Vice Chair Shasti Conrad, who last week pointed to declining AAPI support in the 2024 election when Trump expanded his reach among the group nationally. “We lost ground with many of our communities,” Conrad told Fox News, identifying Asian Americans as one group where there was a “dip” in Democratic support between 2020 and 2024.

The numbers underscore the stakes. New Jersey’s Asian American population exceeds one million in a state of 9.5 million people, with roughly 585,000 eligible voters who make up 9.05% of the electorate. The state ranks fifth nationally in total Asian population and fourth in population share at 11%. Among its AAPI residents, 68% are foreign-born, with Indian Americans representing the largest share at 45%, followed by Chinese Americans at 17%, Filipino Americans at 12.9% and Korean Americans at 11.1%. AAPIs also lead in educational attainment, with 71% holding bachelor’s degrees or higher compared to 41.5% statewide.

Why this matters: Republicans have outpaced Democrats through consistent community engagement and strategic candidate recruitment, Conrad noted. “I’ve certainly seen there’s been a greater play from the Republican Party to reach Asian American voters, particularly in these last several years,” she told Fox, noting GOP politicians have visited Asian-owned businesses, attended cultural events and shown up at places of worship. The party has also run more Asian candidates.

Unsurprisingly, the influence of the voting bloc continues to expand. AAPI voter eligibility jumped 13.6% between 2021 and 2022 in New Jersey alone. The community’s priorities, including education, H-1B visa policy and economic affordability, require targeted outreach rather than generic appeals. The electoral risk for Democrats is substantial as Trump narrowed his 2024 loss in New Jersey from 16 points to just six while flipping five counties, demonstrating Republicans’ growing strength in a traditionally safe Democratic territory.

State of play: Responding to these challenges, the campaign of Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee for governor, has stepped up AAPI outreach in recent weeks. She has launched multilingual voter contact programs and personally attended community events, including a Diwali celebration in Bergen County. Early indicators suggest the strategy is working, but Nov. 4 will reveal whether Democrats’ increased outreach came soon enough to secure the state.

Meanwhile, the Justice Department announced Friday it will deploy federal election observers to Passaic County at Republican request, a decision New Jersey Atty. Gen. Matt Platkin denounced as “highly inappropriate.”