College closures loom as international students avoid US

The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is driving international students away at an unprecedented scale, with new enrollment projected to plummet by up to 40% this fall and force numerous colleges to close.

State of play: The crackdown, which now also targets non-criminals, has created a climate of fear and uncertainty among foreign students. Beyond traditional immigration enforcement, the administration has sought to deport those who participate in pro-Palestinian activism and temporarily revoked legal status for thousands over minor infractions. These actions, combined with visa processing delays in key markets like China, have grown so severe that prospective students are abandoning U.S. applications entirely.

In one critical move, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed new rules requiring F-1 and J-1 visa holders to renew their status at fixed intervals rather than remaining for their full academic program. NAFSA projects these combined factors could trigger a 30-40% enrollment decline this fall, costing the economy $7 billion in lost spending from international students who typically pay full tuition.

Asia stands to gain: With U.S. access becoming more difficult, students are increasingly turning to Asian universities. The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, for one, has seen international undergraduate applications surge 40% from last year. Meanwhile, South Korea has set an ambitious target of 300,000 international students by 2027, with Seoul named the top city for international students in 2026 rankings.

Other regions are also benefiting from the shift. The U.K. has seen undergraduate applications from China rise 10% and applications from the U.S. reach nearly 8,000 students, marking a 20-year high. Dubai saw international student numbers grow by a third in 2024-25 as countries with satellite campuses offer appealing alternatives.

Broader implications: The crackdown leaves American higher education with an enrollment crisis that could lead to college closures. According to a May 2025 National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) report, undergraduate enrollment, without immigrants, would shrink by nearly 5 million students by 2037 compared to 2022 levels, reducing the current population to about two-thirds its size. Study author Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, notes that such losses would be “catastrophic” for many schools, particularly regional universities and small liberal arts colleges in rural areas.

The crisis is already manifesting across institutions. Harvard, the center of national debates over affirmative action since the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling, admitted 25 to 30 additional students this year due to visa concerns while facing $2.7 billion in frozen federal funding over Trump administration demands to reduce international student “dependence.” Meanwhile, over 14,000 Harvard community members have signed a letter opposing any settlement that would compromise institutional autonomy.