Economists believe that China’s growth could lead it to surpass the United States as the world’s most powerful economy by 2020, according to a new research report released by Standard Chartered Bank.
The report suggested that the U.S. will not only lose its crown as the world’s biggest economy but that it will be unlikely to regain it anytime soon, according to Business Insider.
This will happen once China passes over America’s combination of purchasing-power-parity (PPP) exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product (GDP). The Middle Kingdom has already exceeded the U.S. PPP by 4.17 value, according to IMF.org.
A report by Investopedia also found that China’s PPP (valued at $23.15 trillion) has already exceeded the U.S. PPP of $19.39 trillion.
But China is not the only Asian country that experts anticipate to overtake the U.S. By 2030, India is expected to push the U.S. to the third spot, with a GDP growth predicted to accelerate from around 6% to 8% in the next few years.
“India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8% by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code,” Standard Chartered said in its report.
India’s rise would indicate Asia’s ascendance as the most dominant economic region in the world.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” a team of economists for the bank wrote.
By 2030, the Asian GDP “will account for roughly 35% of global GDP,” which will be up from 28% in 2018 and 20% in 2010.
Furthermore, by 2030, five of the 10 largest economies could come from Asia, including China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Japan.