California secession support reaches record high, poll suggests

A record 44% of Californians would support their state leaving the United States, according to a recent poll showing rising tensions between California and the federal government.

By the numbers: The Independent California Institute survey from June 11-23 revealed major changes in how Californians view independence and self-governance. Half of residents now trust Sacramento over Washington — up sharply from 34% in January — while only 23% favor the federal government. Secession support hit 44%, topping the previous peak of 42% from June 2021. Support for special autonomous status within the U.S. was even higher, with 71% wanting more state control over federal decisions and tax revenue.

Why now: The survey results emerge as tensions escalate between California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Trump administration. Last month, Trump sent 4,000 California National Guard troops and 700 Marines to Los Angeles over Newsom’s objections after widespread protests against immigration enforcement. The federal deployment triggered a legal fight and worsened existing policy disputes. California’s financial autonomy adds to the friction, with residents paying $17,731 per person in federal taxes while getting back only $15,603 in 2022 — among the worst ratios nationwide. Asian Americans, who make up 18.4% of California’s population as the state’s largest minority group, face particular impact from these debates given their concentration in major cities.

Pros and cons: Advocates point to California’s massive economy — worth $3.9 trillion in 2023 and ranking fifth globally — as proof the state could stand on its own. The survey showed strong backing for sovereign-style policies, with 80% supporting border controls with other states and 72% wanting arrests of federal immigration agents who overstep their authority. Yet major obstacles persist, as 54% still oppose secession and many question whether it is legally possible. The CalExit movement also fell short of gathering enough signatures for a 2028 ballot measure, though organizers plan to try again. Legal scholars reject the movement’s claims about constitutional authority for secession, disputing their reading of 19th-century Supreme Court cases.

The CalExit movement plans to refile its ballot initiative within weeks, targeting a September restart for signature collection.